It’s a short week, there’s a lot of hype about Ukraine, Europe and Trump, and it seems like rocks are about to start falling from the sky, but the markets are calm. In fact, the S&P 500 set two historic records in the first three trading days of the week, and CEOs of the largest US companies are radiating confidence in the future. So much for “the world as will and imagination” – for some, everything is fine, but for others, it’s a disaster! This is a quick review from Ivan Kompan, Edinburgh Business School analyst.
Fed Meeting Minutes & Rate Cuts The release of the January Fed meeting minutes confirmed what was expected: no rate cuts in the near future. Fed officials cited Trump’s tariffs and mass migrant deportations as potential inflationary pressures, delaying any rate cuts until at least June—and even that is uncertain.
Trump’s Trade War: More Talk Than Action? Despite Trump’s rhetoric, his tariff war has been mostly symbolic so far. The only concrete actions include a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and plans to reinstate steel and aluminum taxes from his first term. Canada and Mexico struck deals with Trump, while other threats remain just words. This lack of real impact has weakened the U.S. dollar as investors rethink their strategies.
U.S. Economy: Confidence vs. Caution Unlike Europe, where economic struggles and security concerns persist, the U.S. economy looks strong. A Conference Board survey of 134 U.S. CEOs showed confidence rising to 60—the highest in three years—indicating a shift from “cautious optimism” to “confident optimism.” However, Walmart, despite exceeding earnings expectations, warned of uncertainty in consumer behavior and geopolitical risks affecting future performance.
Alibaba’s Comeback Alibaba had a fantastic week. The company always had strong fundamentals, but tensions between founder Jack Ma and the Chinese government kept its stock price stagnant. Now, Ma seems to have regained favor with President Xi, and Alibaba’s strong cloud business, AI investments, and quarterly results have finally translated into stock growth. Shares hit a three-year high, rising 60% in a month.
Markets Stay Resilient Despite panic in Ukraine and Europe, global investors remain unfazed. By Friday morning, the S&P 500 had even posted slight gains. While values and ideals are important, money and value creation seem to matter more in the world of capitalism.
*And finally, we would like to remind you that the information you have just listened to is not an investment advisory. Remember – investments in the stock market are always tied up with financial risks. So be careful and cautious.
