The short trading week leading up to Independence Day brought several important events. While the Ukrainian capital Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities were being hit by chekheds and missiles, and the sun was no longer visible due to the smoke of the fires, US President Trump enjoyed conversations with his Russian counterpart, apparently pleasant but unfortunately completely fruitless, and expected a gift from his fellow lawmakers for the US Independence Day, Friday, July 4. And his loyal party colleagues did not disappoint him, nor did they disappoint their leader. This is a quick review from Ivan Kompan, Edinburgh Business School analyst.
The first “gift” came from the Senate, where the vote on the “Big, Beautiful Bill” ended in a perfect 50–50 tie. Enter loyal JD Vance, casting his vice-presidential tie-breaker to push it through. Then came the House, rushing to approve the Senate’s version just in time for July 4 — because apparently, it’s not just Asian dictators who love symbolic dates; Trump’s a fan too. And under Speaker Johnson’s guidance, the necessary votes materialized — even though many Republicans were against it just days earlier. But when the master dealmaker gets personally involved, party discipline magically falls into place. In the end, only two GOP defectors, and the bill passed 218–214. Trump is set to sign it Friday night, proudly declaring it yet another of his “historic victories” that will “unleash an economic boom.”
Of course, he forgot to mention the added strain on the already bloated federal deficit, soaring debt, and rising interest costs. And the fact that millions of Americans will lose access to food, housing, education, and healthcare subsidies? Barely a footnote.
Not that everyday Americans matter much here. The real drama is Elon Musk — who loudly opposed the bill and even threatened to start a new party to fight it. That didn’t sit well with Trump, who took to Truth Social to suggest Americans wasted money supporting a foreigner and that Musk should “go back to South Africa.” Elon’s not likely to pack up, but the generous federal contracts and subsidies his businesses rely on may be at risk — and without them, Musk Inc. might face some hard times.
Meanwhile, the biggest economic event of the week was the jobs data. First came the ADP numbers — a nasty surprise. Private employers were expected to add nearly 100k jobs in June, but instead cut 33k — the first drop since March 2023. Still, markets cheered: weak labor data boosts hopes for a July Fed rate cut.
But Friday’s official jobs report spoiled that party — it beat expectations: job growth resumed, unemployment fell. So, no rate cut (yet). September, maybe. But stagflation fears were put on ice, and markets celebrated again — this time because the economy seems solid. Lately, it doesn’t really matter why investors are celebrating — they just are. After all, global M2 money supply has been climbing fast. There’s cash to burn, and markets are partying.
One person not celebrating? President Trump. Strong labor data arms Powell & Co. with more reasons to delay rate cuts — bad news for Trump, who needs lower rates to paper over the budget hole and the ever-ballooning debt. And let’s not forget: the new bill just added over $3 trillion more fuel to that fire.
So, after the fireworks are over, expect another round of presidential rage-tweets — aimed squarely at Powell, the man daring to stand in the way of Trump’s magical world of populism, promises, and fiscal fantasy.
*And finally, we would like to remind you that the information you have just listened to is not an investment advisory. Remember – investments in the stock market are always tied up with financial risks. So be careful and cautious.
