We have another week of records. Despite all the tariff antics of the US president, his intentions to fire the Fed chairman and loud statements about the chief banker’s ineptitude, the unpleasant story of the Epstein files, which despite the titanic efforts of Trump and his entourage to hush up the case is only gaining momentum, inflation, which does not want to return to its target, high prices and unprecedented concentration of the stock market around the seven largest companies, high yields on government debt and a number of other factors that should have a negative impact on the US stock market, it continues to grow. As the prominent economist John Maynard Keynes once said: “Markets can be irrational longer than you can be solvent.”This is a quick review from Ivan Kompan, Edinburgh Business School analyst.
The first gift came from the Senate, which split 50-50 on the “Big, Beautiful Bill.” VP JD Vance cast the tiebreaker in favor. Then came the House’s turn — they had to approve the Senate’s edits before July 4th, Independence Day. Turns out, Trump also enjoys aligning decisions with symbolic dates, not just Asian autocrats. The House delivered — thanks to Speaker Johnson’s efforts and Trump’s legendary deal-making. Only two Republicans voted against, and with a final 218–214, the bill passed and will be signed on Friday in a lavish ceremony. Trump, unsurprisingly, called it a “historic win,” claiming it would unleash an economic boom. What he didn’t say: it will worsen the deficit, increase debt servicing costs, and cut vital social programs — education, healthcare, food, and more. But who cares about average Americans?
Elon Musk certainly cares. He hates the bill so much he threatened to start a new party. Trump doesn’t like that one bit. On his social media, he raged that taxpayers shouldn’t fund “that foreign guest” and suggested Musk “go back to South Africa.” Musk likely won’t leave, but federal contracts and subsidies that fuel his empire might. Without them, even the richest man on Earth might feel the pinch.
On the economic front, the week started gloomy. ADP jobs data showed a loss of 33,000 private-sector jobs in June — the first drop since March 2023. Still, markets didn’t flinch — bad news could push the Fed to cut rates in July. But then came the main labor report: job creation up, unemployment down. That means no July rate cut — maybe in September. At least stagflation fears recede. Markets celebrated again, soaring to new highs. Lately, they’ll take any excuse to rally — and with global M2 surging, there’s money to burn.
One person not celebrating? Trump. Powell and the Fed now have solid ground to delay cuts. That’s bad for Trump — higher rates worsen the deficit, already ballooning after his new $3+ trillion spending bill. So expect post-holiday tantrums aimed at Powell — the main obstacle to building Trump’s dreamland of populism, false promises, and fiscal fantasy.
*And finally, we would like to remind you that the information you have just listened to is not an investment advisory. Remember – investments in the stock market are always tied up with financial risks. So be careful and cautious.
