The first week of winter ended on an optimistic note, restoring investors' hopes for the traditional “Christmas rally,” which has occurred 59 times in the last 75 years. The chances of a successful end to the year depend heavily on the Fed's decision to cut rates, which members of the monetary committee are expected to approve next week. Currently, the probability of a rate cut is 86%, but forecasts are one thing, and reality is another. We will see what happens, as the central bank will have to make a decision “blindly,” without having fresh data on the state of the US economy at its disposal. This is a quick review from Ivan Kompan, Edinburgh Business School analyst.